Highlights The global economy has turned the cap and is on a sustainable uptrend. Yet, the AUD and CAD have over-discounted the improvements and are at risk of suffering a disappointment if global manufacturing activity remains firm…
Highlights Eurostoxx50 versus S&P500 boils down to a simple choice: Banco Santander, BNP Paribas and ING; or Apple, Microsoft and Google? Right now, we would rather own the three tech stocks than the three banks - which necessarily…
Highlights Chart 1Keep A Close Eye On Financial Conditions The market's rate hike expectations moved sharply higher during the past two weeks as a string of Fed speeches, including one by Chair Yellen, all but confirmed a March…
Highlights Assessing Our Tilts: Our decision to upgrade corporate spread product versus government debt in the U.S., and to reduce overall recommended duration exposure, at the end of January has been performing well. Maintain these…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A relapse in the global financials sector threatens to spill into U.S. financials as credit growth sinks. Bank equities are the most vulnerable to such a phase, given their reliance on rising interest…
Highlights Risk assets have rallied smartly, yet key indicators like the relative performance of Swedish stocks or the price of kiwi equities are not corroborating these moves. With the Fed now very likely to increase rates in March,…
How Long Is The Sweet Spot? Table 1Recommended Allocation The sweet spot on a baseball bat, scientists find,1 is the small area about two inches (5 cm) long, some six inches from the tip. The sweet spot for global risk assets…
Highlights U.S. Treasuries - Fair Value: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield now appears 7 bps expensive on our model. Investors should maintain below-benchmark duration and continue to monitor bullish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar for…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The market has quietly adopted a less cyclical sectoral tone since yearend, a trend that could amplify over the coming months, even if overall appreciation persists. Defense stocks have grown into…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…