Expectations of a prolonged period of abundant liquidity and rising confidence that recession is not imminent have created the conditions for a potential blow-off phase. This week we are fine-tuning our portfolio for peak performance…
Refiners will reduce run rates over the next month or so to clear unintended inventory accumulation, but it's not like they've never had to deal with this situation.
There has not been much of an improvement/recovery in the Chinese economy. Credit growth is weakening anew, which warrants a downbeat cyclical outlook for China's industrial sectors. Malaysia is heading into a classic credit/banking…
The latest data releases confirm that the Chinese economy regained its footing. In the near term, growth figures should continue to surprise to the upside. Earnings preannouncements by Chinese listed firms show a significant…
Developed Market bond yields are too low relative to improving global growth and the strong recovery in risk assets post-Brexit. Reduce portfolio duration to below-benchmark.
Forecast is diverging from strategy for equities. Intermediate-term positives allow for a blowoff to the upside. But we do not expect the rally to have staying power over a 6-12 month horizon.
Over the past 12 months, the yen surged, powered by global deflationary fears. Japanese monetary conditions massively tightened, causing additional yen strength, creating a vicious circle. Policymakers will respond, but markets are…
The perception that central banks have turned even more dovish has pushed down global bond yields, while also giving stocks a lift. Looking out, bond yields are likely to edge higher as investors begin to focus more on the outcome of…