Commodity speculation provides liquidity to hedgers, allows price discovery, and offers access to an asset class that typically produces returns that are not correlated with stock or bond returns.
Given that the seemingly unthinkable can actually happen, we reassess how financial markets price uncertainty, and whether the current pricing is correct.
A spike in economic uncertainty explains the recent move lower in Treasury yields. Given the resilience of global growth, we expect yields to rise as uncertainty ebbs in the coming months.
Our Cyclical Indicator Update reveals that a defensive portfolio strategy remains the best bet to navigate the crosscurrents of stagnant profit/economic growth yet abundant global liquidity.
Brexit is putting our bearish short-term dollar view in question as global policy uncertainty has surged. Yet, investors are displaying elevated signs of risk aversion but the global economy still looks fine. This dissonance is…
A number of divergences have emerged in global financial markets. These gaps are unsustainable. The recent improvement in Asian trade/manufacturing has been largely due to firming demand for electronics/semiconductors. Meanwhile,…
Yield and Protector Portfolios should continue to benefit in current environment. Equities face seasonal headwinds.