Housing activity should accelerate in the back half of the year given the drop in Treasury yields. Buy home improvement retailers and add to long homebuilding positions.
A benchmark overall duration stance is still warranted, as central banks will maintain exceptionally accommodative monetary policies to offset potential Brexit-related shocks to confidence.
Some near-term upside in Treasury yields is very likely as flight to safety flows begin to unwind. However, given that global growth divergences remain in place, we will continue to look for an opportunity to increase duration on any…
For the month of June, the model performed in line with both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of July, the model is increasing its risk exposure.
Global uncertainty is elevated, but markets know this. Brexit could prove extremely negative for the global economy if it prompts a questioning of the EU's integrity. The cyclical outlook for the pound remains poor, but a short-term…
Post-Brexit uncertainty will continue for some time. But we were already cautiously positioned, and would not go any more defensive.
Even if commodity markets are not yet pricing a higher probability of fiscal stimulus following the U.K.'s Brexit vote, we believe they will begin doing so in very short order.
The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is…