At current levels, Treasury yields are consistent with our assessment of fair value. Further, the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index does not suggest an imminent recession. Expect payrolls to stabilize above levels consistent with…

For now, maintain a benchmark duration stance leading into the June 23 U.K. Brexit vote, favoring Treasuries and (especially) Gilts over Bunds and JGBs.

This week's report discusses whether bad news is good news for stocks, or a potential restraint. Tumbling long-term yields argue for augmenting consumer discretionary sector weightings, via the movies & entertainment group.

The 1990s mid-cycle slowdown is an appropriate analogue to current market conditions. A lower dollar was the key ingredient the easing in monetary conditions that resolved this episode. This suggests that today, as the sole economic…

China's 4.7 trillion RMB (~ $720 billion) fiscal stimulus program will be more bullish for base metals, particularly copper, than we initially surmised.

Assuming last month's weak employment report is not the start of a trend, the market is still discounting too low a probability that the Fed will lift rates this year. This means the Treasury curve should bear-flatten in the coming…

Weak employment will push out the timing of rate hikes to something closer to BCA's view of a September increase. It is also supportive of our asset allocation call two weeks ago to overweight Treasuries.

Special Report

The Turkish central bank has almost exhausted its foreign exchange reserve. It has been printing money to keep interest rates lower, and sustain the credit boom in the economy. Such policies are unsustainable and the currency will…

Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.