China's reflation policies have succeeded in reviving iron ore and steel prices, which are up 45.6% and 52.6% from their January lows, along with the profitability of domestic steelmakers.
Financial conditions will continue to ease during the next few months, and the Fed will use its June statement to prepare the markets for a rate hike in September.
Absolute valuations on Euro Area corporates are not cheap, but there are relative value opportunities to take advantage of the ECB becoming a major buyer of corporates. Favor Euro Area High-Yield over Euro Area Investment Grade, and…
Profits are bottoming but the outlook is lackluster, even if further dollar weakness provides a temporary boost.
Reflation continues to dictate short-term market moves. Behind this sugar-high, the global economic backdrop remains poor. Commodity currencies can rally for a few more weeks, but once markets refocus on Chinese and EM core…
For the month of April, the model's performance was in line with the S&P 500, but lagged global equities. For May, the model is aggressively paring back its equity risk exposure. Both Europe and Emerging Markets were downgraded,…
The Fed's statement underscored its 'go slow' approach, with a June hike increasingly unlikely, but September and December still in play. The BoJ stood pat, reluctant to admit that NIRP was a flop soon after it was launched.…
How big a problem are the non-performing loans in Italy and Greece? And what is the solution?
The near-term (next month or two) market dynamics in EM risk assets remain a coin toss. Beyond that the outlook for EM risk assets remains downbeat. EM financial markets are complacent and there are many potential negative EM/China…