This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation.
There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.
In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over…
The recent bear-steepening of the US Treasury curve has been driven by the combination of stronger-than-expected economic growth and stable Fed rate expectations. Historically, such periods do not last very long, and we see the…
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends a barbelled allocation across the Treasury curve. The Treasury curve bear-steepened in September. The 2-year/10-year Treasury slope steepened 32 bps on the month and…
We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
A discussion of today’s FOMC meeting and its investment implications.
In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting