Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that…
We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta…
Time is running out on the Bank of England’s tightening cycle. UK economic growth is flirting with recession, unemployment is rising, house prices are contracting and inflation is decelerating. Markets are overestimating the eventual…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2023.
Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.
China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is…
History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation will fall during the next 12 months, but not by as much as markets expect. Investors should take advantage of this valuation opportunity by entering 2-year/10-…