Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical…

An outlook for inflation and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2023.

A perspective on the recent increase in US bond yields and this morning’s employment report.

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

Special Report

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Special Report

This week’s Special Report updates our US default rate forecast and considers whether corporate bond spreads offer value given the trend in credit fundamentals. We also consider the relative value proposition between investment grade…

In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish…