In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish…

A preview of what to expect from next week’s FOMC meeting.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2023.

Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand…

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand…

US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and closing short positions in the…

The Fed hiked 25 basis points at yesterday’s FOMC meeting while also signaling that the tightening cycle is now on hold. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2023.

Today’s releases of the March CPI and March FOMC minutes do not change our view that the Fed will deliver one more 25 basis point rate increase before going on hold.