Investors in Europe and the American West are already starting to think about the implications of the 2024 election, given that sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy keep the risk of recession elevated.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2023.

The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.

Special Report

This report considers the outlook for the US corporate credit cycle based on a suite of economic, monetary and corporate health indicators. We conclude that both the default rate and US corporate bond spreads will grind higher during…

Special Report

We analyzed US bear markets since 1954 to identify reliable indicators for distinguishing new equity bull markets from bear market rallies. Our checklist of indicators does not suggest it is time to overweight equities in a multi-…

The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback.

Core CPI rose sequentially in January compared to December, but we don’t see this as the beginning of a new trend. Disinflation is very much still in the cards for the US economy between now and the end of the year.

Ironically, increased confidence that the economy can withstand higher bond yields may be necessary to lift yields to a level that is actually detrimental to growth. Thus, until more investors are convinced that a recession will be…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.

Financial markets were taken on a wild ride between Wednesday and Friday of this week, with hugely important monetary policy meetings in the US, euro area and UK along with a rash of economic data. Despite all the news, noise and…