When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Special Report

This week’s Special Report goes over the structural problems facing the UK economy and our outlook for UK gilts and the sterling following turbulent moves in 2022.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered an important speech last week in which she laid out the intellectual justification for the Fed to soon pause its rate hike cycle. This week’s report reviews her arguments and explains how they…

Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy will intensify over the coming months, allowing equities to rally. However, even if an equilibrium of high employment and low inflation is reached, it will be difficult to keep the economy…

In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.

In this, our final report of a tumultuous year, we summarize our policy outlook for the “Big 4” central banks – the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and the BoJ – and the associated bond market implications for 2023.

Special Report

In this report, we discuss our most important investment themes for global fixed income markets in 2023, and present our main investment recommendations based on those themes. Our broad conclusion: an environment of slowing global…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.