Special Report

This week we present six key investment views for 2023.

Special Report

Long-term deflationary forces in Japan are weakening, setting the stage for inflation to make a comeback over the remainder of the decade. Investors should prepare to structurally reduce exposure to Japanese bonds starting early next…

Special Report

In this Special Report, we consider what some common monetary policy rules are recommending for the major central banks and derive conclusions on duration strategy and country allocation for bond investors. We conclude that rate hike…

The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.

The messages from the deteriorating fundamental backdrop (tight monetary policy, slowing global growth) and improved credit valuation (elevated 12-month breakeven spreads) are giving conflicting signals on corporate bond strategy. We…

Central banker messaging after the latest rate hike announcements in the US, UK and Australia indicates a shift in focus from the pace of hikes to how high rates must rise to slow growth and bring down inflation. This represents the…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2022.

As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global equities over a 12-month horizon.

This week’s report examines the state of the global monetary tightening cycle and addresses some frequently asked questions about the Fed’s QT program. New yield curve trades are recommended for the US and German yield curves.

Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…