Executive Summary Global inflation will peak sometime in the next few months, a process that has likely already begun in the US. This will give policymakers some breathing room to turn less hawkish, a more credible stance given…
Executive Summary The Fed, Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia all hiked rates last week. The BoE, however, signaled a note of caution on future UK growth, given soaring energy prices and plunging consumer and business…
Executive Summary The Fed offered more explicit near-term forward rate guidance at its meeting last week. This guidance will reduce yield volatility at the front-end of the curve during the next few months. We expect the Fed to…
Executive Summary A True Bond Bear Market, USD-Hedged Or Unhedged The US dollar has appreciated in 2022, most notably against the euro and Japanese yen. The rally has been more muted against the currencies of major US…
Highlights Chart 1Past Peak Inflation The Fed is all set to deliver a 50 basis point rate hike when it meets this week and with inflation still well above target Chair Powell will be keen to re-affirm the Fed’s…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Second Fastest Hiking Cycle Ever? Can the Fed achieve a soft landing, bringing inflation back to its 2% target without causing growth to…
Executive Summary Above Fair Value March’s CPI report will mark peak inflation for 2022. We recommend several ideas to profit from peak inflation. First, investors should keep portfolio duration close to benchmark.…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…