Executive Summary The Fed is in a tough spot. On the one hand, rising long-dated inflation expectations will incentivize it to tighten more quickly. On the other hand, the flat yield curve and poor risky asset performance point to a…
Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…
Highlights Chart 1A Tough Balancing Act For The Fed In last week’s Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jay Powell talked about his goal of achieving a “soft landing”. That is, the Fed will tighten enough to…
Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the…
Executive Summary US biotech is trading at its greatest discount to the market. Ever. Much of biotech’s underperformance is due to transient factors: specifically, the sell-off in long-duration bonds; the focus on delivering a…
Executive Summary The recent 26 percent overspend on durable goods constitutes one of the greatest imbalances in economic history. An overspend on goods is corrected by a subsequent underspend; but an underspend on services is not…
Executive Summary The End Of The Negative Bond Yield Era Recent price action in developed market government bond markets confirms a backdrop that has been in place for the past several years - movements in US Treasuries…
Highlights Chart 1Most Sectors Have Fully Recovered Last week’s January employment report shocked markets by showing much greater job gains than had been anticipated. More important than the headline number, however,…