Highlights Monetary Policy: It’s all but certain that tapering will begin next month and conclude by the middle of next year, but the FOMC is currently split right down the middle on whether it will be appropriate to lift rates…
As expected, the FOMC did not make any changes to its policy rate or pace of asset purchases at its meeting on Wednesday. However, the Fed sent a strong signal that tapering is on the horizon. The statement indicated that “if…
Highlights Fed: The Fed will be forced to clarify its definition of “maximum employment” in 2022, and the path of inflation will ultimately dictate how far the Fed tries to push the labor market. We expect Fed rate hikes to…
Highlights Chart 1Employment Growth Will Rebound August’s weak employment growth reflects the surge of Delta variant COVID cases in the United States. This is evidenced by the fact that Leisure & Hospitality sector…
Highlights Jackson Hole: The message from Jackson Hole is that the majority of the FOMC – including Fed Chair Powell - is ready to begin tapering asset purchases before year-end. There is less unanimity within the FOMC over the…
Highlights Investors have grown enamored with online retailers (AMZN), payment processing companies (V, MA, PYPL, SQ), and social media companies (FB, SNAP). All three sectors are likely to experience headwinds over the next 12 months…
Highlights Chart 1Still Close To Fair Value Treasury yields fell significantly in July, particularly at the long end of the curve. We continue to view this move as an overreaction to mediocre economic data that will be reversed…
Highlights The countertrend yield rally is near its end. Despite the deteriorating Chinese credit impulse, the outlook for global growth remains robust. An ample global liquidity backdrop, an inventory restocking cycle, and an upbeat…
Highlights Recent progress on the path to a post-pandemic state and the return to pre-COVID economic conditions has been mixed. The share of vaccinated individuals continues to rise globally, and the number of confirmed UK cases has…