Yield Curve
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.
Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.
Following today’s Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps, we discuss our outlook for monetary policy in the UK. We expect the gradual easing to continue and discuss the investment implications for UK gilts and sterling.
The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet.
The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet.
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.