The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet.
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist of our Emerging Markets and China Investment Strategy services. Arthur highlights an important dichotomy in the US stock-bond yield correlation. In the past 12…
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.
Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
Our US Bond Strategy team published their outlook for the Fed in 2025. They expect more cuts than the 50 bps signaled by the Fed at its December meeting. Core PCE inflation is tracking well below the Fed’s 2.5% forecast, while…
Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda.…