Highlights Portfolio Duration: The decline in US bond yields is overdone. We anticipate that strong US employment data will catalyze a jump in bond yields this fall and that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach a range of 2% - 2.25…
Highlights The decline in US Treasury yields has once again reduced the appeal of US paper, relative to foreign developed and emerging market bonds. Historically, lower US bond yields relative to other markets has been dollar bearish…
Highlights US Treasuries: Peaking global growth expectations and the growing spread of the Delta variant are challenging the “reflation and reopening” narrative that drove bond yields higher in Q1 of this year. Underlying…
Highlights Yield curves have flattened considerably in the major economies since April. Slowing global growth, the perception that the Fed is turning more hawkish, and technical factors have contributed to flatter yield curves.…
Highlights Duration: The recent decline in Treasury yields is overdone. Economic growth is no longer accelerating, but it hasn’t slowed enough to justify the strength in bonds. Stronger employment data will pressure bond yields…
The growth acceleration narrative that drove much of the performance of global financial markets in 2021 is showing signs of fraying, led by US bond yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to drift lower, hitting an…
Highlights Chart 1Employment Growth June’s employment report revealed that 850 thousand jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls during the month. This is well above the 416k to 505k threshold that is required to hit the…
Dear Client, China Investment Strategy will take a summer break next week. We will resume our publication on July 14th. Best regards and we wish you a happy and healthy summer. Jing Sima, China Strategist Highlights A USD…
Highlights Spread Product: The macro environment is highly supportive for spread product and it will likely remain supportive for the next 12-18 months, at least until the yield curve flattens to below 50 bps. Remain overweight spread…
Highlights The ongoing transition to a post-pandemic state and fiscal policy are either positive or net-neutral for risky asset prices. Fiscal thrust will turn to fiscal drag over the coming year, but the negative impact this will…