Highlights Rates: The Democratic sweep of the election has caused the uptrend in bond yields to accelerate and has benefited our recommended rates positions (below-benchmark duration, nominal and real curve steepeners, inflation curve…

Special Report

Dear Client, I am writing as the US Capitol goes under lockdown to tell you about a new development at BCA Research. Since you are a subscriber of Geopolitical Strategy, we wanted you to be the first to know. This month we are…

Highlights Chart 12020 Returns  After a tumultuous start to the year, corporate bonds rallied in 2020 H2, managing to eke out small annual gains versus Treasuries. Specifically, investment grade corporates outperformed…

Special Report

This is US Bond Strategy’s final report of the year. Our regular publication schedule will resume on January 5th with our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2021. We wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous new year. …

Special Report

Highlights Below-Benchmark Portfolio Duration: The economic recovery will continue (and even accelerate) in 2021. Meanwhile, the Fed’s forward interest rate guidance is already as dovish as it will get. Keep portfolio duration…

Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields & The CRB/Gold Ratio  In our last report of November, we noted that the rising COVID case count was likely to lead to a challenging few months for the US economy, but we also questioned…

Highlights Inflation Breakeven Trades: We are taking profits on our recommended inflation breakeven widening trades in Italy and Canada, as breakevens in both countries are no longer below the fair values implied by our models. We are…

Please note that there will be no US Bond Strategy report next week. We will publish December’s Portfolio Allocation Summary on December 8th, followed by our Key Views For 2021 on December 15th and a Special Report titled “The…

Highlights Economy: The Democrats did not sweep the US election, but the Democratic House and Republican Senate will likely find some middle ground on a stimulus deal. This will keep the economic recovery on track. A highly effective…

Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields Have Upside In A Blue Sweep  Today’s US election has important implications for the near-term path of bond yields. In particular, a “blue sweep” outcome where the Democrats win…