Highlights Chart 1Will Fed Purchases Mark The Top? Policymakers can’t do much to boost economic activity when the entire population is under quarantine, but they can take steps to contain the ongoing credit shock and…
Highlights Duration: Last week’s bond market sell-off was a headfake and does not portend a sustained move higher in Treasury yields. We will need to see a stabilization in confirmed COVID-19 cases and signs of improving global…
Highlights Chart 1Making New Lows While the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is falling in China, the virus is spreading rapidly to the rest of the world. It is now clear that the outbreak will not be contained, though…
Highlights Dear Client, This week, we had originally planned to publish a Special Report introducing a framework for modeling and selecting global yield curve trades. In light of the market turbulence of the past few days, however, we…
Highlights The coronavirus is a wild card that may have a significant impact on the global economy, … : The COVID-19 outbreak is unfolding in real time, half a world away, and its ultimate course is uncertain. For now, our China…
Highlights Chart 1The 2003 SARS Roadmap The bond market impact from the coronavirus has already been substantial. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to 1.51%, below the fed funds rate. Meanwhile, the investment grade…
Please note that next week’s US Bond Strategy Weekly Report will be replaced by a Special Report on Commercial Real Estate that was produced jointly with our US Investment Strategy team. That report will be published on Monday…
Highlights Chart 1Softer PMIs In December A bond bear market looked to be underway in December, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching as high as 1.93% just before Christmas. But two developments during the past week drove…
Highlights Global growth will rebound in 2020, led by the US and China, putting upward pressure on global bond yields. Maintain below-benchmark overall duration exposure. Central banks will stay dovish until policy reflation has…