Highlights Equities had a wild ride in October, ... : The S&P 500 has bounced smartly off of its October 29th lows, but the decline that preceded the bounce was unusually severe. ... that unsettled a lot of investors, and made us…
Highlights Chart 12015 Repeat? Credit spreads widened as Treasury yields rose in October, bringing to mind the experience of 2015 when tight monetary policy and flagging global growth combined to cause a large drawdown…
Highlights Did October's equity rout ... : Before bouncing back in its final two sessions, October was the S&P 500's 12th-worst month of the postwar era. ... represent a watershed for financial markets?: Shaken investors…
Highlights Duration: Foreign economic growth continues to diverge negatively from growth in the United States. The resulting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar will eventually drag U.S. growth down, and could temporarily threaten the…
Highlights U.S. data keep surging, ... : The September ISM surveys, and the latest employment situation report, demonstrated that the economy has considerable momentum. ... and the Fed has taken note, ... : Chairman Powell and other…
Highlights Chart 1Second Half Rebound The leveling-off of bullish sentiment toward the dollar and the perception of fading political risk have caused spread product to rally hard since the end of June. Indeed, corporate bonds…
Highlights Prediction 1: A major financial downturn will trigger the next major economic downturn, and not the other way round. Prediction 2: The straw that will break the back of a fragile financial system will be the global long…
Highlights Duration: The Fed is unlikely to slow its 25 bps per quarter rate hike pace until there is sufficient evidence pointing to a slow-down in economic growth. Maintain below-benchmark duration in U.S. bond portfolios. Yield…
Highlights Chart 1Wage Growth Playing Catch-Up To Curve Last Friday's employment report confirmed that the U.S. economy remained on a solid footing through August, even as leading indicators outside of the U.S. have weakened.…