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Highlights Chart 1Yield Curve Suggests GDP Growth Has Peaked  Last month we learned that the U.S. economy grew 4.1% in the second quarter, the fastest pace since 2014. The gap between year-over-year nominal GDP growth and the…
Highlights Editor's Note: I am pleased to return to U.S. Investment Strategy (USIS). I worked with the service when I joined BCA in 2010, and previously led it from August 2013 through September 2014. Sara Porrello, who has been with…
Highlights President Trump has taken the next step in the trade war by charging some of America's major trading partners with outright currency manipulation. However, we are not headed for Plaza Accord 2.0, because neither the ECB…
Highlights Global Yields: Flattening government yield curves in the developed world have raised concerns about a potential future growth slowdown. Yet real policy rates will need to move into positive territory before monetary policy…
Special Report Highlights Chart 1Corporate Health: Improving Everywhere, ##br##Down In The U.S.  Dollar bull markets are often accompanied by positive returns for the S&P 500. While a strong dollar hurts the earnings outlook for the S&…
Dear Client, Geopolitical analysis is a fundamental part of the investment process. My colleague, and BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Marko Papic will introduce a one-day specialized course - Geopolitics & Investing - to…
Highlights Monetary Policy: Position for rate hikes of 25 bps per quarter for the next 6-12 months and watch nominal GDP growth, cyclical spending and the price of gold for signals about the position of the fed funds rate relative to…
Special Report Highlights After having written about the role of the U.S. yield curve in forecasting recessions, we are devoting this Special Report to addressing the widely asked question on the effectiveness of the yield curve in determining asset…
Highlights 0 To 3 Months: Extended net short positioning and the recent moderation in economic data suggest that Treasury yields are ripe for a near-term pullback. Investors who are able should consider tactically buying bonds on a 0-3…
Special Report Highlights Butterfly Trades: Duration-neutral butterfly trades are the best way to gain pure exposure to changes in the slope of the yield curve while remaining insulated from parallel shocks. Yield Curve Models: In this report we…