Special Report

The UK labor market remains far too tight to expect wage growth to slow to levels consistent with the Bank of England inflation target. A true recession with rising unemployment is needed to finally slay the UK inflation beast. 2024…

Special Report

This Special Report introduces a framework for assessing the relative importance of slope change and initial yield in curve trade performance. The yield penalty for curve steepeners has fallen significantly since the beginning of the…

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now…

Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.

The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.

Special Report

Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon.

MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a neg­ative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.

We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.