In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.
US Investment grade and high yield spreads have tightened 39 and 133 bps since their October 2023 highs, resulting in the outperformance of both fixed income sectors relative to equivalent-duration Treasuries. Still robust…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2024.
MacroQuant upgraded equities to overweight in February on a tactical short-term (1-to-3 month) horizon, but it continues to see downside risks to stocks on a medium-term (12-month) horizon. Consistent with the model’s relatively…
Earlier this year it looked like the spread between the rate of 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was heading toward positive territory. Yet the 2s/10s spread peaked at -16 bps on January 16 and the inversion has been deepening…
The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.
We rank the US spread sectors in terms of risk versus reward.
Comments on yesterday’s CPI report and yield moves.
Easier financial conditions, rising home prices, rebounding consumer sentiment, and a stabilization in manufacturing activity all augur well for near-term US growth prospects. An unsustainably low savings rate is a key risk to the US…