Insights

As the odds of a Trump victory rise, European assets underperform US ones. What would be the immediate impact of a Trump victory on European stocks? ...

Can Powell achieve a soft landing? There are some indications he is doing it. We examine why our negative stance was wrong and analyze the four growth engines that kept recession at bay. Half of these forces remain while the other half have run out of juice. While this might be enough to keep the ec...

MacroQuant expects global equities to weaken in November. As such, the model recommends underweighting equities and overweighting bonds and cash....

MacroQuant expects global equities to weaken in November. As such, the model recommends underweighting equities and overweighting bonds and cash. ...

The latest Bank of Japan meeting did not alter our high-conviction views of being long the yen and underweight JGBs....

EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodity prices. Such a decoupling is unusual. Resilient US growth and Fed easing are not sufficient to justify very low EM credit spreads. ...

In Section I, we explain how recent positive data surprises are connected to expectations of Fed easing, meaning that they are self-limiting. Yields will rise even further if US economic data continue to surprise to the upside, which will put the US back on a recessionary path. A Republican sweep ha...

We update our 12-month return projections for different US fixed income sectors in soft-landing and recession scenarios. ...

Trump may be favored, but Harris is now underrated. The Senate is highly likely to go Republican – Harris would be gridlocked if she pulled off a victory. If Trump wins it will be a full sweep. Expect volatility in the short term.  ...