Developed Countries
In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets.
Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields.
This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.
Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.
MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.
Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026