Insights

An update to our outlooks for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies following this week’s remarks from Fed Governor Waller. ...

The Brazilian government and the central bank will be prioritizing growth over curbing the fiscal deficit and inflation. The outcome of an easy policy mix is that growth and inflation will be higher relative to market expectations, and real interest rates will drop considerably. We recommend that in...

This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months. ...

Decelerating nominal sales, a peaking credit cycle, and very high valuations - Indian stocks will not escape the carnage when risk assets globally begin to sell off. ...

The risk markets will be surprised by another 1mm b/d increase in crude oil supplies this year or next from the US is low, given the depletion of the unfinished-well inventory that drove shale output higher. Demand remains strong, although growth will slow. Higher non-OPEC 2.0 production, slowing d...

The SEC has just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, but does bitcoin have any ‘intrinsic’ value? In this Special Report we explain why the answer is yes, how bitcoin compares with gold, and why the bitcoin price could ultimately head well north of $100,000. ...

The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors. ...

The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration of these positive trends weighs on the outlook for the Capital Good...

Taiwan’s election will lead to serious Chinese military and economic pressure but not full-scale war. War is a long-term concern. Investors should short TWD-USD. ...

The global green energy rush faces mounting headwinds. Additional global solar and wind capacity installations will have considerable growth reduction this year. Copper prices did not drop much in 2023 due to surging demand from green power build-up. Green power will be less positive for copper dema...