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Japanese Yen

The latest BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey reaffirms the US dollar’s dominance in global FX markets, highlighting the structural challenges of truly moving away from the USD-centric financial system. The survey conducted in April 2025 reported total…
Japan’s September machine tool orders rose 9.9% year-on-year to a six-month high, led by a 13% jump in foreign exports, reinforcing the growing tailwind for Japan’s industrial sector and supporting a structural overweight yen position. Foreign demand remains…

In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.

European sentiment has moderated, pointing to near-term downside risk for a technically-stretched Euro. The August Eurozone ZEW Expectations index fell to 25.1 from 36.1, with Germany’s reading missing estimates, dropping sharply to 34.7 from 52.7. The German…
Our DM ex. US strategists see the yen entering a multi-year rally and recommend shorting EUR/JPY now while preparing to short USD/JPY as Fed cuts approach. The yen remains deeply undervalued across PPP, unit labor cost, and real trade-weighted metrics, near…

The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.

Our strategists recommend shorting EUR/JPY, citing stretched valuations and rising reversal risks. The cross has surged more than 6% since late May, triggering new short positions from the Counterpoint, European Investment Strategy, and Global Investment…
The Upper House loss of Japan’s ruling coalition reflects growing political uncertainty, reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. The LDP-led ruling coalition has lost control of both houses of parliament for the first time…

EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.