In our simulations of fairly deep global recessions averaging -1.5% in 2024 global GDP growth, we expect OPEC 2.0 to reduce output enough to offset lost demand. Even so, we find oil prices drop ~ $22/bbl – from ~ $100/bbl in 1H24 to…
The recent increase in Korean exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle rebound within a cyclical downtrend. Korea’s households and enterprises are among the most indebted globally, and their debt service ratio is among the highest…
Q3 US real GDP was revised higher in the second estimate that was released on Wednesday. The 5.2% q/q annualized increase beat expectations of a more muted upwards revision to 5.0% q/q from the advance estimate of 4.9% q/q. In…
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a pessimistic message for the US economy. Half of the 12 districts reported slight declines in activity, two indicated that “conditions were flat to slightly down,” and the…
Recent Euro Area economic data have been sending a less pessimistic signal. Wednesday’s releases are in line with this trend. The European Commission’s confidence indicator shows a mild improvement in economic…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its key interest rate steady at 5.5% at the November policy meeting yesterday. That decision was as expected, but the messaging surrounding the announcement was surprisingly…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, events that have occurred since the onset of the pandemic have highlighted that the easy money era that prevailed from 2009-2021 is very likely over. The Fed will…
The uptick in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index to 102.0 pushed it above consensus estimates of 101.0 in November. Although this is a marginally positive signal, the prior month was revised down from 102.6 to…
US home prices climbed to a new all-time high in September. According to data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, prices gained 0.7% m/m, albeit a slower pace of increase than the 0.8% m/m rise in August. On an annual basis,…
After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live…