Older workers have deserted the labour force in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. The result is that wage inflation is red hot in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. Hence, the Bank of…
This week’s report examines the state of the global monetary tightening cycle and addresses some frequently asked questions about the Fed’s QT program. New yield curve trades are recommended for the US and German yield curves.
Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…
The Bank of Canada unexpectedly slowed the pace of its interest rate increases on Wednesday, delivering a 50bp hike against anticipations of another 75bp rise. The decision reflects an attempt to balance between stubbornly…
Retail sales in Canada grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in August, following a 2.2% contraction in the prior month. In particular, food & beverage store sales led the increase, expanding 2.4%. Most encouragingly,…
The Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey reveals that weaker sales growth expectations are dampening confidence among Canadian businesses. The BOS indicator dropped from 4.87 in Q2 to 1.69 in Q3 – the weakest…
Our preferred tactical global fixed income trades for the rest of 2022 into early 2023 are all expressions of our views on relative monetary policy shifts within the main developed market economies. These involve bets on a…
We continue to anticipate that the Fed won’t pause its tightening cycle until Q1 or Q2 of 2023, and current labor market trends certainly give no indication that a Fed pause (or “pivot”) is imminent.
This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent…
Executive Summary Upward Repricing Of Bond Yields Continues In this report, we discuss our move last week to shift to a below-benchmark overall global duration stance in more detail. Our strongest conviction view on…