Strategy Report

Four Tactical Bond Trades For The Next Six Months

11 Oct 2022

Our preferred tactical global fixed income trades for the rest of 2022 into early 2023 are all expressions of our views on relative monetary policy shifts within the main developed market economies. These involve bets on a relatively more hawkish Fed and Bank of England versus a relatively more dovish ECB and Bank of Canada, while also betting on additional selling pressure on Italian government bonds.

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Contents

Executive Summary / Insight
Trade #1: Long Dec/2023 Euribor Futures, Short Dec/2023 US SOFR Futures
Trade #2: Long A 3-Month/30-Year Gilt Barbell, Short A 5-Year Gilt Bullet
Trade #3: Long Canada 10-Year Bond Futures, Short US 10-Year Bond Futures
Trade #4: Short Italy 10-Year Bond Futures, Long Germany 10-Year Bond Futures
Summing It All Up
GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Recommended Positioning
Active Duration Contribution: GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. Custom Performance Benchmark
The GFIS Recommended Portfolio Vs. The Custom Benchmark Index
Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months)
Tactical Overlay Trades