The July Empire Fed beat estimates, but survey volatility, inventory distortions, and shallow strength dampen this signal. The headline index surged to 5.5 from -16.0, supported by gains in shipments, employment, and capex…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.
Imminent monetary and fiscal easing, along with resilient earnings growth, support a constructive outlook for equities. However, in the near term, significant tail risks persist. We recommend strengthening downside protection by…
India's IT service exports have been booming and will continue to do so despite wider AI usage. Indian IT stocks, however, will not benefit from it as the expanding Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India compete with the nation’s…
In its budget plans last week, the Indian fiscal authorities announced major tax cuts for households – the equivalent of about US$12 billion, 0.3% of GDP – to boost consumer spending. Soon thereafter, the central bank cut its policy rates…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, there are clear signs that growth is weakening. BCA’s Global Nowcast has been slowing for three months. Behind this slowdown is the fact that the US…
Chinese industrial profits growth accelerated in June, rising from 0.7% y/y to 3.6%. Profits expanded at 3.5% in the first half of 2024, compared to 3.4% in the first half of 2023, and suggest that China’s manufacturing…
Equity investors have been skittish about mid-cap banks ever since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023. The S&P MidCap 400 Regional Banks Index remains 4% below its February 2023 high while the S&P 500 Diversified…
Total consumer credit rose by USD 11.4 billion in May (to USD 5,065 billion outstanding) from a slightly upwardly revised USD 6.5 billion increase in April, surpassing expectations of a smaller increase. Notably, revolving credit…
Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.