As US consumers remain one of the few engines of global growth, our US Investment Strategy colleagues took a deep dive on consumer trends, augmented with comments from US banks’ earnings calls. Middle-aged consumers have…
Our US Equity Strategy colleagues expect Q3 earnings to be strong enough to fuel the soft-landing narrative. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to be 4.0% year-over-year, with sales growth of 4.0% too. Yet, with…
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated…
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish…
This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.
The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more…
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession…
Despite the recent correction, US equity leadership remains intact. The MSCI US index has outperformed global markets by 3.8% in 2024YTD. A 7.8% expansion in forward earnings drove the MSCI US index’ 2024YTD gains which was…
Stocks are a forward discounting mechanism and routinely top before recessions begin, even if they typically do not swoon until the recession has taken hold. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, if…