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Developed Countries

Consumer Income And Spending Consistent With Broad Cooling
US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In real terms, spending barely…
Daily Insights
Services Inflation Still Too High For October ECB Cut
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s updates are due on Monday and the Eurozone CPI will be…
Daily Insights
Downtrend In Savings Rate Gets Revised Away
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show that the savings rate has been…
Daily Insights
European Assets After The Politburo Shock
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still vague, it adopts a much more pragmatic tone…
Daily Insights
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Can Lower Rates Save The Economy?

We consider the possibility that lower interest rates could lead to an increase in household borrowing, prolonging the economic recovery.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Republicans Can Still Win This Election

Our quant model shows Democrats winning the election at a 56% probability, with 303 electoral college votes. But swing state economies are slowing and Democrats’ odds in Michigan fell. Trump can win with Georgia, Michigan, plus one other state. Neither the Fed nor China’s stimulus should reduce one’s odds of a Republican upset.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
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The Critical Hour: Geopolitical Outlook, Q4 2024

Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
SNB Eases In September, Signals December Cut
In a widely expected move, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.00%. The move marked President Thomas Jordan’s final policy decision and his incoming successor Martin Schlegel…
Daily Insights
What To Watch
Daily Insights
Has OPEC+ Exhausted Its Policy Levers?
One commodity that has not reacted to the bullish demand-side news from the Politburo (see The Numbers) is crude oil. Brent shed over 2% on Thursday, in sharp contrast to Copper’s gains. Oil markets seem to be reacting to a bearish supply-side development…
Daily Insights

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