There has been no shortage of twists since last Friday’s employment situation report. On Monday, the July ISM Services PMI release dissipated some of the risk-off mood that dominated markets. On Thursday, positive…
German Industrial production and factory orders continued their slump in June. The usual powerhouse of the Euro Area economy has been trailing its peers throughout 2024. While both industrial production and factory orders…
Consumer credit growth disappointed in June. Total credit outstanding rose by USD 8.9 billion, in June, lower than May's USD 13.9 billion, and shy of expectations of USD 10 billion. Revolving credit (which includes credit…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, there is a strange quirk about Walz and the state of Nebraska that could have national consequences in the black swan scenario of an electoral college tie. Walz…
The BoJ delivered a surprise rate hike last week, then proceeded to sending a more dovish signal on Wednesday. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida strongly hinted at a central bank that would refrain from hiking further in times of…
After briefly breaking a 27-month streak of negative sentiment back in June, the Eurozone Sentix Economic index disappointed in August. The overall index worsened from July’s negative reading to -13.9, below expectations…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, the reason that the bears have been wrong for the past 18 months is that consumers have defied the expectations of most learned economists. As our colleagues posited in…
Harris picked Walz to patch up her weak side in the electorally vital Midwest. But the US election will continue to weigh on risk appetite, stocks, and high-beta assets because the odds of a single-party sweep are at least 50%,…
The decision by GeoMacro team on July 2 to short USDJPY and underweight equities has proven to be prescient. We still do not like the market setup from here on out. A recession would, obviously, be negative for risk assets. But even…