The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.
July US CPI met expectations as leading indicators point to disinflation, supporting our long duration stance and preference for 2s5s steepeners. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (2.7% y/y), while core increased 0.3% m/m and…
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB…
This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers.
Our US Equity strategists view Q2 earnings as confirmation of corporate resilience, but caution that the full impact of tariffs is still ahead. Strong results show that companies have weathered tariff-related costs through…
China’s July inflation data confirmed entrenched deflation, reinforcing our defensive stance on Chinese equities and overweight in onshore bonds. CPI slowed to 0% y/y from 0.1%, while factory-gate prices stayed deeply negative…
Sweden’s July inflation print came in cooler than expected, but core remains too high for an imminent Riksbank cut. CPI rose 0.8% y/y, while CPIF climbed to 3.0% and core CPIF decelerated to 3.1%, still above the Riksbank’s 2.8…
Japan’s Eco Watchers survey suggests growth has troughed, making JGBs vulnerable in both global slowdown and reacceleration scenarios. The July survey showed current conditions ticking up to 45.2 and expectations improving to 47…
US tariffs will not derail the low-inflation economic recovery underway in the Euro Area. Investors should overweight European equities, focusing on parts of the market more insulated from tariffs.