Treasury yields will sketch out a range between now and Q1 2024, with the upside determined by inflation and the downside determined by labor markets.
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now…
Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the…
The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high…
The US ISM PMI sent a slightly negative signal about US manufacturing conditions in November. The headline index came in unchanged at 46.7, which suggests that the pace of contraction was more pronounced than consensus estimates…
Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.
BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service does not expect a global recession next year. In practical terms, this means they are more bullish on their oil-price outlook for 2024 than the consensus and also differ…
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35…
As expected, US personal income growth moderated from an upwardly revised 0.4% to 0.2% in October. However, disposable personal income growth experienced a less pronounced slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% -- particularly in real terms…
In our simulations of fairly deep global recessions averaging -1.5% in 2024 global GDP growth, we expect OPEC 2.0 to reduce output enough to offset lost demand. Even so, we find oil prices drop ~ $22/bbl – from ~ $100/bbl in 1H24 to…