Equities
European equities have recently lagged the S&P 500, with short-term risks building despite a constructive long-term outlook. After reaching all-time highs in February, the EURO STOXX 50 began to stall as US markets sold off on Deep Seek headlines. The…
BCA’s Emerging Markets strategists remain negative on EM stocks in absolute terms but recommend a neutral weighting within global equity portfolios. Economic growth does not reliably translate into earnings per share or shareholder returns, with dilution (net…
Equities have retraced sharply from Liberation Day lows, but renewed policy risk and mispriced volatility keep us tactically cautious. The Trump administration softened its trade stance as equities neared bear market territory in early April, but has now…
We still believe a recession looms, but it has yet to rear its ugly head. We continue to recommend investors position defensively, but we will change tack if clear signs of a recession don’t emerge soon.
Economic growth and rapid expansions do not always translate into higher EPS and shareholder returns. One of the key reasons is dilution. We offer a typology of dilution: (1) “offensive”, (2) “defensive”, (3) corporate governance-linked, and (4) idiosyncratic cases.
Persistent deflation and constrained policy options support a defensive stance on China, favoring bonds and high-dividend equities. Consumer prices were roughly flat in June, rising just 0.1% y/y after a 0.1% decline in May. Producer prices fell 3.6%,…
The RBA’s surprise hold reinforces a slower easing path, warranting an underweight on Australian bonds. Markets had priced in a 25 bps cut, but the central bank opted to keep rates at 3.85%. Governor Bullock characterized the decision as a matter of timing,…
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Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0 and expectations modestly…
全球市场正从疫情后的刺激与错配中走出。“宿醉” 初醒，各类资产进入新一轮定价周期。在结构变化加速之际，小莉将讨论如何在全球 “宿醉期” 中稳健前行、寻找超额回报。