BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration. One obvious result of the dramatic selloff in bonds is that the value proposition of long-maturity Treasury…
The Fed’s tone has taken a decidedly dovish turn during the past week and, despite September’s hot CPI print, there is mounting evidence that a period of disinflation is coming. This makes the case for a pause in the Fed’s tightening…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the German yield curve will invert and that German 10-year Bunds are a buy. Even though a global recession looms, central banks are unlikely to pause…
The ECB will continue to lift rates due to sticky inflation and a tight labor market. Will it be enough to push long-term German yields higher?
The kinked Phillips curve not only explains why inflation surged last year but makes a number of surprising predictions, chief of which is that inflation could fall significantly over the coming months without a major increase in the…
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…
Is the BoE’s emergency intervention in its bond market a British idiosyncrasy that global investors can ignore? No, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings, with implications for all investors.
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the high-yield default rate will rise to 5.1% during the next 12 months, a significant jump from the 1.5% seen during the most recent 12-month period. They model the…
Our preferred tactical global fixed income trades for the rest of 2022 into early 2023 are all expressions of our views on relative monetary policy shifts within the main developed market economies. These involve bets on a…
We continue to anticipate that the Fed won’t pause its tightening cycle until Q1 or Q2 of 2023, and current labor market trends certainly give no indication that a Fed pause (or “pivot”) is imminent.