The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying…
The "reflation trade" is breaking down. Brexit risk is partly at fault; the bigger issue is the lack of a global "spender of last resort." Globally, savings must equal investment. The problem is that desired savings are rising and…
Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June…
Three strategies that could win whatever the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership. And what to look out for in the final days before the vote.
For now, maintain a benchmark duration stance leading into the June 23 U.K. Brexit vote, favoring Treasuries and (especially) Gilts over Bunds and JGBs.
The disappointing May payroll report does not foreshadow an imminent economic downturn. The Japanese government's decision to postpone next year's VAT increase and introduce fresh fiscal stimulus should help jumpstart growth. On the…
The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the…