Is a Plaza Accord 2.0 necessary? If so, why? If not, what could stem the rise in the dollar, or will it continue to overshoot? In our view, there are fundamental reasons not to bet on a new accord, but that does not necessarily help…
Monetary and energy policy errors will keep oil- and gas-price volatility elevated. This will continue to weaken capex in conventional and renewable energy. Headline inflation will remain elevated. We remain long the XOP ETF, to…
The growth rate of Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in September. While it is a noisy series, the latest deterioration is consistent with the weakening trend since late 2021. In…
Last week’s Global Manufacturing PMI release showed the New Export Orders component fell deeper in contraction territory in September – to 45.9 from 47.0. It marked the 7th consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust…
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…
The JP Morgan Global Services PMI improved from 49.3 to 50.0 in September, signaling that global services activity stabilized after contracting in August. Notably, new business and expectations for future activity grew at a…
On Monday, the Global Manufacturing PMI sent a negative signal about factory activity. The indicator fell from 50.3 to 49.8 in September – marking the first contractionary reading since June 2020. In particular, the Output…
Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…
This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.