Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Labor Market

What To Watch
Daily Insights
f_image_20241024_121638.PNG
The Simple Economic Identity Haunting China

In this report, we discuss why we are lifting our US recession probability from 60% to 65% and explain why China’s latest stimulus announcements are welcome, but probably are “too little, too late.”

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Election: Echoes of 2016
The US election is tightening in its final weeks, and the latest polls challenge our Geopolitical Strategy’s base case of a Democratic White House. The original thesis was built on the premise of a Democratic incumbent advantage, after only four years in…
Daily Insights
Housing Is The Business Cycle… And Housing Is Weakening
US housing starts and building permits eased below expectations in September. Permits, a proxy for future construction, dropped 2.9% after rising 4.6% in August. New construction fell 0.5% after rising 7.8% a month prior. These disappointing numbers extend…
Daily Insights
f_image_20241017_195524.PNG
The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Staying The Course On Our Bearish Views
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish developments. First, there is more to…
Daily Insights
UK Assets: Mark Your Calendar
The UK August employment report was in line with recent data showing an economy humming at a decent pace. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1pp to 4% after peaking at 4.4% before the summer. The BoE will look kindly to the continued deceleration in wage…
Daily Insights
f_image_20241011_165932.PNG
Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
f_image_20241010_180744.PNG
Has The US Labor Market Turned The Corner?

It is too early to say that the US labor market has turned the corner. We assign a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession over the next 12 months, with the downturn likely to begin in the first half of 2025. Accordingly, investors should underweight equities.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Aggregate Data Hint At Accelerating Activity
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a broad-based acceleration since…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics