Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Labor Market

f_image_20240927_121206.PNG
The Critical Hour: Geopolitical Outlook, Q4 2024

Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Refinancing Surge
The conventional 30-year mortgage rate eased further to 6.2% from above 7% back in the spring, spurring a 20.3% surge in refinancing activity last week. Mortgage applications rose 11.0%, marking a fifth consecutive week of increase and the Conference Board…
Daily Insights
Riksbank Eases Further, Signals Jumbo Cut
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Confidence Falls By Most In 3 Years
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly shed 6.9 points to 98.7 in September. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components declined, by 10.3 and 4.6 points respectively. The decline in morale in September was broad-based across…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240920_143619.PNG
Will Europe Do Whatever It Takes?

The Draghi report highlights sensible reforms that would address many of Europe’s productivity shortcomings. Whether European capitals heed Mario Draghi’s advices remains to be seen.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Canada’s Retail Sales Grow For Two Consecutive Months
Canadian retail sales grew by a higher-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July from a 0.2% contraction in June. A 2.2% monthly rise in vehicle sales led an otherwise broad-based increase. Ex-auto retail sales also surprised positively, growing by 0.4%. A measure…
Daily Insights
The Paradox Of A Weak NOK
The Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its September meeting and signaled low odds of policy easing before the first quarter of 2025. The inflation backdrop does not warrant easing policy. Although core CPI cooled to 3.2% y/y in August,…
Daily Insights
What To Watch
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20240918_200520.PNG
Japan: Escape Velocity Is At A Higher Altitude

In this report, we argue that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike interest rates this week, but the relative trajectory of bond yields in Japan is higher. This warrants an underweight position in JGBs and a leveraged bet on a higher yen. The positioning for equity investors is murkier, as progress on corporate reforms is necessary for a rerating in Japanese shares. That is not yet very clear. The bottom line is: Stay long the yen.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Melanie Kermadjian, Chester Ntonifor
F_IMAGE_20240918_180851.PNG
The Fed Goes 50

We update our bond views following today’s 50 bps rate cut.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics