We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an…
It takes time for wage inflation to die. So, if 2022 was the year that central banks’ monster tightening killed bond and stock market valuations, then 2023 will be the year that it finally reaches the economy and kills profits, jobs…
This week’s report takes a look at risk-adjusted return opportunities in US spread product.
Monetary and energy policy errors will keep oil- and gas-price volatility elevated. This will continue to weaken capex in conventional and renewable energy. Headline inflation will remain elevated. We remain long the XOP ETF, to…
Is the US in a wage-price inflation spiral that could lead to more aggressive Fed rate hikes? Is it time to buy UK Gilts after a wild month of volatility? We answer "no" to both questions, as we discuss in this week’s report.
The Fed’s tone has taken a decidedly dovish turn during the past week and, despite September’s hot CPI print, there is mounting evidence that a period of disinflation is coming. This makes the case for a pause in the Fed’s tightening…
The ECB will continue to lift rates due to sticky inflation and a tight labor market. Will it be enough to push long-term German yields higher?
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be…
Is the BoE’s emergency intervention in its bond market a British idiosyncrasy that global investors can ignore? No, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings, with implications for all investors.
Our preferred tactical global fixed income trades for the rest of 2022 into early 2023 are all expressions of our views on relative monetary policy shifts within the main developed market economies. These involve bets on a…