Our 4Q22 and 2023 Brent forecasts remain at $100/bbl and $116/bbl. Upside price risk continues to dominate oil markets. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain exposure to oil and gas producers’ equities, and higher commodity…

Special Report

Global oil supply will slightly exceed demand in the next six months, resulting in a small surplus. Brent oil prices will trade in a range with a floor at $80 per barrel, barring any geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and/or…

Expect the Middle East to create new and unexpected energy supply disruptions on top of the Russian energy shock.

Despite uncertainty and intrusive government policy, natural gas and oil markets have managed to direct much-needed supplies to Europe going into winter. Natgas markets attracted massive LNG inflows – at a cost of record-high prices…

Monetary and energy policy errors will keep oil- and gas-price volatility elevated. This will continue to weaken capex in conventional and renewable energy. Headline inflation will remain elevated. We remain long the XOP ETF, to…

Special Report

The G7’s attempt to insert itself in the oil-price-formation process performed by global trading markets will distort markets and the signals driving production, consumption and investment. The G7 will need a face-saving off-ramp to…

OPEC 2.0’s decision to cut 2mm b/d of output beginning in December telescopes the loss of Russian volumes we expect over the course of the coming year. OPEC 2.0 clearly is not playing by the G7’s or the US’s rules. This will keep…

Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…

This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

Executive Summary Higher Brent Prices, Stronger Upside Bias  The Fed is pacing a globally synchronized monetary-policy tightening cycle as the war in Ukraine escalates, following Russia’s mobilization of 300k reserve…