Sweden
U.S. inflationary forces remain tame, forcing the Fed to maintain an easy bias. Yet, the global economy is improving. This confluence could weigh on the dollar and boost commodity currencies. The NZD has more upside, but it will lag petro currencies. The BoJ will act, but timing is uncertain. Keep a negative bias toward the yen. CAD/NOK has more downside.
While the BoE and the Fed are increasingly committed to letting inflation expectations rise, the BoJ disappointed once again. The dollar and the pound are likely to experience broad weaknesses, while gold, the euro and commodity currencies have upside. USD/ZAR will fall further in the short term, but the cyclical bull-market is not over.
The U.S. and the global economies are improving. A synchronized upswing normally trumps the Fed in determining the path for the dollar. U.S. inflation expectations are likely to rise relative to the rest of the world, weighing on the dollar. The risks for EUR/USD have risen. We are hedging our long EUR/USD position by shorting the euro on some crosses. Buy CHF/JPY.
Using long-term real rates, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity still works for exchange rate determination. Currencies are also affected by the global risk appetite and commodity prices. Intermediate-term fundamentals for EUR/USD are pointing up, but the timing is not optimal to buy it yet. However, the long-term outlook for the euro remains poor. Currently, USD/JPY has room to rally in the short term. Long-term factors will also continue to weigh on the yen.
Over the past 12 months, the yen surged, powered by global deflationary fears. Japanese monetary conditions massively tightened, causing additional yen strength, creating a vicious circle. Policymakers will respond, but markets are likely to be disappointed. Nonetheless, global factors could temporarily move against the yen. Buy NOK/JPY and AUD/JPY. The BoE will move next month. The BoC will stand pat for the foreseeable future.
Global uncertainty is elevated, but markets know this. Brexit could prove extremely negative for the global economy if it prompts a questioning of the EU's integrity. The cyclical outlook for the pound remains poor, but a short-term opportunity to buy GBP/JPY has emerged. We still like the SEK and commodity currencies. The SNB will continue to intervene, but the peg is increasingly dangerous.
Among the myriad of troubling signs for the global economy, some developments on the inventory and deflationary fronts could point to a brighter future. While still not our base case, those factors need to be monitored. With Brexit over and done with, we are reshuffling our GBP portfolio. Remain bullish EUR/USD. Go short CAD/NOK.
The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying opportunity. Extreme GBP implied volatility suggests that selling vol is attractive. The Fed decreased its rate projections.
The 1990s mid-cycle slowdown is an appropriate analogue to current market conditions. A lower dollar was the key ingredient the easing in monetary conditions that resolved this episode. This suggests that today, as the sole economic lever left, the greenback has further downside. Go short USD/SEK. Go long a basket of NOK, CAD, AUD and NZD against the USD.
The RMB has been steadily depreciating versus the U.S. dollar and has dropped to a new cyclical low versus its trade-weighted basket. All the while, Chinese domestic interest rates have lately drifted higher. When global investors wake up to these dynamics, global share prices and EM risk assets will likely sell off anew. In Mexico, initiate a new yield curve trade: receive 10-year / pay 1-year swap rates.