Global uncertainty is elevated, but markets know this. Brexit could prove extremely negative for the global economy if it prompts a questioning of the EU's integrity. The cyclical outlook for the pound remains poor, but a short-term…

The health care sector is poised to resume its bull market, but the character of the rally will change. Sell hospitals and buy biotech.

Among the myriad of troubling signs for the global economy, some developments on the inventory and deflationary fronts could point to a brighter future. While still not our base case, those factors need to be monitored. With Brexit…

The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.

The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying…

At current levels, Treasury yields are consistent with our assessment of fair value. Further, the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index does not suggest an imminent recession. Expect payrolls to stabilize above levels consistent with…

This week's report discusses whether bad news is good news for stocks, or a potential restraint. Tumbling long-term yields argue for augmenting consumer discretionary sector weightings, via the movies & entertainment group.

The 1990s mid-cycle slowdown is an appropriate analogue to current market conditions. A lower dollar was the key ingredient the easing in monetary conditions that resolved this episode. This suggests that today, as the sole economic…

China's 4.7 trillion RMB (~ $720 billion) fiscal stimulus program will be more bullish for base metals, particularly copper, than we initially surmised.