There are not two possibilities in today's vote, but four: Clear Remain; Narrow Remain; Narrow Leave; Clear Leave. We discuss the distinct repercussions from each.
We prefer to fade the recent fall in yields by moving to neutral on U.K. Gilts and underweight Australia, while maintaining a benchmark overall stance on portfolio duration.
The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying…
The "reflation trade" is breaking down. Brexit risk is partly at fault; the bigger issue is the lack of a global "spender of last resort." Globally, savings must equal investment. The problem is that desired savings are rising and…
Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June…
Three strategies that could win whatever the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership. And what to look out for in the final days before the vote.
For now, maintain a benchmark duration stance leading into the June 23 U.K. Brexit vote, favoring Treasuries and (especially) Gilts over Bunds and JGBs.
The 1990s mid-cycle slowdown is an appropriate analogue to current market conditions. A lower dollar was the key ingredient the easing in monetary conditions that resolved this episode. This suggests that today, as the sole economic…
The disappointing May payroll report does not foreshadow an imminent economic downturn. The Japanese government's decision to postpone next year's VAT increase and introduce fresh fiscal stimulus should help jumpstart growth. On the…