United States
The April FOMC minutes clarified the hawkish shift that marked the meeting. The Fed held at its last meeting, but there were four dissents. While Governor Miran favored a 25 bps cut, regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan supported a hold but voted…
US growth remains positive and is now improving, with the economy seemingly exiting Slowdown and proceeding into Expansion. Markets are reflecting the shift, rewarding revenue growth and capex growth, while earnings expectations continue to advance. The backdrop remains supportive, but expectations are rising and risks from financial conditions linger.
Strong and broad Q1 earnings are keeping the investment-led cyclical story intact despite rising geopolitical and supply-side risks. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist. The Q1 earnings season has delivered strong…
April US retail sales were roughly in line with estimates, but real spending likely stayed flat-to-negative. Headline sales slowed to 0.5% m/m from 1.6% a month prior. The core measure, which excludes autos and gas, and the control group, which feeds into…
The Trump-Xi meeting was modestly positive, but it remained short on concrete commitments and did not amount to a strategic reset. Both sides still found room for limited trade de-escalation. President Trump may have lacked domestic and international leeway,…
April PPI was hotter than expected, reinforcing the inflation message from CPI rather than changing it. Headline PPI for final demand rose 1.4% m/m, up from an upwardly revised 0.7% in March. The core measure, which excludes food, energy, and trade, rose 0.6%…
Our US Political and Geopolitical strategists expect Democrats to win the Senate in the 2026 midterms, despite an electoral map favorable to Republicans. While their quantitative model projects a narrow 51-49 Republican majority, our colleagues are skeptical.…
Q1 productivity data do not support the case for a broad, AI-driven productivity boom. We noted last week that US productivity growth in Q1 was lackluster. Our BCA Confirming Productivity Indicator, available on BCA’s new Artificial Intelligence Dashboard,…
Democrats are likely to win big in this year's midterm elections. Our new quant model still slightly favors Republicans for the Senate, but we expect the oil shock to deliver surprise Democratic victories.
The April NFIB survey pointed to weaker growth, even as labor-market signals firmed at the margin. The index came in at 95.9, up slightly from 95.8 in March, but expectations deteriorated to 4% from 11%. More importantly, firms’ reported sales and employment…