Maintain a modestly defensive stance as the NFIB shows no signs of a growth or labor-market re-acceleration. The November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat estimates, rising to 99.0 from 98.2 and slightly above its long-term…

 Maintain long duration and favor tactical steepeners as the JOLTS data show no evidence of a labor-market re-acceleration. The delayed October JOLTS report showed job openings rising slightly to 7.67m from 7.66m, but underlying…

 Watch the shift in correlation between equities and the USD; a positive co-movement will carry major implications for asset allocation and hedging. Shifting correlations have been a defining theme of the year. They often signal…

 Our US and Geopolitical strategists delivered accurate calls on Trump’s tariff shock and Israel’s strike on Iran in 2025 but missed the China equity rally and overestimated near-term prospects for a Ukraine ceasefire. Their 2025…

 Expect more Fed easing than priced as stalled labor momentum and fragile consumption limit inflation pressure. The delayed September Personal Income & Outlays report showed a weaker picture than expected. Nominal income and…

 Stay overweight duration and favor curve steepeners as a stalled labor market and fading inflation pressures argue for more Fed easing than priced next year. The November Challenger report beat estimates, showing a 23.5% y/y rise in…

 Maintain a neutral equity stance as cresting services inflation and weak employment temper right-tail risks. The November ISM Services PMI beat estimates at 52.6, up from 52.4, but the details were mixed. New orders fell to 52.9 from…

 Stay long duration and favor curve steepeners as weakening ADP data reinforce rising labor-market risks and the case for further Fed cuts. The November ADP report missed estimates, showing a loss of 32k jobs after a 47k gain in…