United States
Jay Powell won’t be removed as Fed Chair before the expiry of his term next May, but we will learn the identity of his replacement this year, setting up a potentially awkward “shadow Fed Chair” situation.
June retail sales beat across the board, but inflation and a slowing trend reinforce our defensive stance. Headline and core retail sales rose 0.6% m/m, while the control group climbed 0.5%. Spending on food services and drinking places, used as a proxy for…
Our Geopolitical and Equity Analyzer teams recommend a Value and Quality-focused equity basket in Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary to capture OBBBA-driven upside. These sectors are the primary beneficiaries of the newly passed stimulus…
The July Philly Fed beat expectations with broad improvement in activity, but low growth, inventory buildup and margin pressure remains a risk for equities. The headline index rose to 15.9 from -4.0 in June. New orders, shipments, and employment all…
Our DM ex-US strategists see EUR/USD in a multi-year bull market and recommend selling EUR/JPY at 172.5. The euro’s 2025 rally has been driven first by improving Eurozone growth expectations, then by mounting concerns over the US balance of payments. The US…
The S&P 500 sits near all-time highs, but sentiment and positioning suggest euphoria has not driven this rally. Prices are elevated, yet the SKEW/VIX ratio sits at 8.3, or its 67th percentile. While not at extreme levels associated with reversals, it…
The July Empire Fed beat estimates, but survey volatility, inventory distortions, and shallow strength dampen this signal. The headline index surged to 5.5 from -16.0, supported by gains in shipments, employment, and capex intentions. However, new…
Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment.
June CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with tariff passthrough building in goods but broader inflation pressures likely to remain contained. Headline inflation came in slightly above expectations at 2.7% y/y (0.3% m/m), while core matched estimates…
We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.